Yemen's Uncertain Future Threatens Regional Stability

[abu khaled]

Yemen's Uncertain Future Threatens Regional Stability

19 November 2008

Yemen presents a 'perfect storm' of problems for Western governments confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country, according to a new Chatham House paper.
Yemen is the poorest state in the Arab world, where jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. Yemen's economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil sales but oil production is declining.
Based on original research conducted over 16 months in Yemen, this paper by journalist and film-maker Ginny Hill says future instability in this weak and incomplete state has the potential to expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, to Saudi Arabia. Piracy, smuggling and violent jihad would flourish, with implications for the security of shipping routes, the transit of oil through the Suez Canal and the internal security of Yemen's neighbours.
'Yemen: Fear of Failure' concludes that Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing. This fragile state faces several complex and intertwined challenges: the strain on political instability posed by the impending transition of power, multiple internal threats to security, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. The scale of the problem and the speed of action required pose a challenge both to the international community and to advocates of reform within Yemen.
Western governments need to work towards an effective regional approach that includes the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia. The prospect of state collapse in Yemen would reduce any chance of progress towards peace in Somalia and further endanger the security of countries throughout the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.

NOTES TO EDITORS
Read paper: Yemen: Fear of Failure
Ginny Hill is a freelance journalist and TV producer. She has reported from Yemen and the Horn of Africa for the BBC, the Economist, the Christian Science Monitor and Jane's Islamic Affairs Analysis. Her film on Somali refugees in Yemen was broadcast by Channel 4 News, CNN, al-Jazeera English and France 3.